Kent pointed out that my blog looks really sad when I haven't updated it in over a month because all the entries go away, so here's an update.
Since the election is coming up, I thought I'd post some links to the polling/prediction sites that I've been regularly visiting. You have to be a bit skeptical of wild swings, as some polls have noticable slants. Also watch out for polls that are sponsored by a political party, since they tend to skew towards the candidate they support.
http://www.electoral-vote.com
http://synapse.princeton.edu/~sam/pollcalc.html
http://www.race2004.net
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_sbys.html
Another interesting bit of info I found recently is that, since 1952, the incumbent (regardless of party), has never run even 1% better in the final results than their final poll numbers. Basically, that means that the "undecideds" have historically tended to skew toward the challenger. That's why many prediction sites, even those with Bush currently leading, predict that Kerry will end up winning a narrow victory. Of course, there's no guarantee that this election will follow historical trends -- it's already pretty abnormal in the number of newly registered voters, so we'll just have to wait and see how it all plays out.
On a more depressing note, this study from the University of Maryland indicates that Bush supporters and Kerry supporters tend to live in completely different worlds regarding the rationale behind the war in Iraq, whether al Qaeda was involved in 9/11, the findings of the 9/11 Commision, how the US is perceived in the rest of the world, and the candidates' foreign policy positions. Sadly, it's not just a case of well informed people having an honest difference of opinion -- Bush supporters overwhelmingly cling to beliefs that are just not supported in fact, and in fact in many cases are contrary to reality.
This is scary, depressing stuff. It's not like there's a gray area here -- there are right and wrong answers to these questions, and many Bush supporters seem to be more than willing to ignore these facts if it would hurt their support of Bush. If you are planning on voting for Bush or know those that are, please read this or forward this study to them. We don't need misinformed voters.
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